Covid-19 Diary : Thursday 11 February, 2021

 

Some good news, first.  US daily new virus cases have declined 22% in the last week, continuing a steady and steep reduction now for an entire month since 11 January.

This is remarkably good news, and new case numbers are now at the same point they were back on 6 November.  Cases have been dropping at twice the rate they had been rising.  There continues to be no explanation for this; even more surprisingly, there’s been little commentary or apparent interest in trying to understand what magically started happening in early January to turn the tide.  While the “obvious” explanation is vaccination, there is no reason at all to suspect this to be so.  Vaccination might reduce death rates, but not so much reduces the new case rates.

Talking about obvious but wrong explanations, and exactly as we expected and predicted, the WHO mission is now busy whitewashing the origins of the coronavirus outbreak.  They say the concept of a lab leak is extremely unlikely – so unlikely they’re not even going to bother investigating it!

So where did the virus come from?  At least they’re not going to insult us with ridiculous stories of blood dripping from a dead bat onto something else at a Wuhan market just around the corner from where research was being done into making bat viruses more deadly and capable of infecting humans (which is, of course, purely a coincidence, we are now told).  Instead, they double down with an even more ridiculous theory – the virus didn’t originate in China at all.  It came into the country on some imported meat – an explanation much loved by the Chinese government, because it casts them in the role of entirely innocent victim.

The proof to support this unusual claim?  Details of what meat and from which country?  None, whatsoever.

Most of the rest of us prefer the detailed, fastidious, even-handed analysis and reasoning in this excellent, thorough, and lengthy article in New York Magazine.  Their conclusion?  99% for sure, it came from one of the several bio-labs in Wuhan.

I promised in a tweet earlier in the week I’d explain what herd immunity is and is not.  I’m seeing some people misunderstanding this concept, for example, this article.

What herd immunity means is that if a new case of the virus appears, it will not spread uncontrollably.  Instead of ten person infecting twenty who infect forty and so on, after herd immunity has been achieved, ten people might infect five, and they infect 2 1/2 more, dwindling down to zero after a very few more “generations” of infection transfer.  Herd immunity is primarily caused when so many people have become immune that the virus finds it too hard to find enough new victims, during its window of infectiousness in each infected person, to keep spreading.

The key point about herd immunity is that it doesn’t give any of us immunity.  It is a poor choice of term.  It simply means that new virus outbreaks tend to shrink and die out naturally, rather than grow and keep growing.  But if you are infected by the virus, and you haven’t been vaccinated or in some other way acquired immunity, you are absolutely just as much at risk of severe illness and death as you are today, no matter what the broader herd immunity status of the country is.

There’s another aspect to consider with herd immunity.  Typically, it occurs either when enough people have had the disease and acquired immunity that way, or when enough people have been vaccinated and acquired immunity that way, or through a combination of both scenarios.

But.  And it is a big but.  It is becoming abundantly apparent that having been infected once does not give us long lasting immunity and protection against being infected a second time.  There are two reasons for this.  First, because it seems the naturally created antibodies in our bodies die off – the body “forgets” the virus, more quickly than we’d hoped.  Second, because new strains of the virus are not as vulnerable to existing antibody protection we might have built up from a first infection.

And, more “but”.  There’s another issue, too.  Most of the vaccines don’t seem to do much to prevent us still becoming infected by the virus, nor do they do much to stop us passing the virus on to other people.  That is why countries like New Zealand say they’ll not allow people into their country, even if the visitors have been vaccinated.  They still could be bringing the virus with them.  The main benefit is the vaccine prevents us from becoming seriously unwell or dying.

We also point out that new virus strains are sometimes less affected by current vaccines, as well.  Even vaccination may not be long lasting.

For herd immunity to become effective, we need more than 65% of the population to have acquired some sort of immunity.  Some sources say more than 80% of people need to have acquired immunity somehow.  But if immunity after being infected is short-lasting (think 3 – 6 months), and if “immunity” from vaccination doesn’t stop you becoming infected or passing it on at all, and if perhaps 30% of the population will never be vaccinated, how are we going to get to that happy point where the virus does not spread, but instead shrinks?

To be blunt, it just isn’t going to happen, not unless our vaccines are improved to the point of preventing infections and people becoming infectious, and lasting for longer periods between booster shots.

One more point about the limitations of vaccines.  The CDC released an utterly and completely insane statement on Wednesday which raises two huge questions.  The CDC said that if you’ve been vaccinated, and if you’re exposed to the virus, as long as you are asymptomatic, had both vaccine shots, and were vaccinated within the last three months, you don’t need to quarantine.

Astonishingly, it seems the biggest justification in their reasoning is to save people inconvenience.

Question 1 :  What testing has been done to show that asymptomatic infected vaccinated people are not infectious?

Question 2 :  Why is this limited to three months?  Do the vaccines only work for three months?

The CDC has been busy talking itself into corners this week.  It has also now formally stated that two masks are better than one.  They may well be right about this, even though their study was extremely superficial and limited, but that’s not the point.  This time, three questions.

Question 1 :  Why, less than a year ago, was the CDC and Saint Fauci saying we didn’t need any mask at all, if now they are recommending two masks?

Question 2 :  If two masks are better than one, why has it taken so long for this very simple easy and inexpensive study to be conducted?  Why hasn’t it been tested more rigorously?  How many lives were lost during the previous periods of (quoting the CDC director) “Seriously please, stop buying masks” and then, more recently, “any old mask will do”?

Question 3 :  If there’s no need to isolate, even after exposure, why is President Biden still wearing a mask and urging everyone else to do so too?  Is he at risk of being infected or not?  Are other people around him at risk of being infected by him or not?

So far this week, I’ve pointed to highly contentious statements from some of the world’s supreme arbiters of medical truth – WHO and CDC.  In all cases, there were and are credible and cogent reasons for laughing at these statements and preferring other approaches and opinions.

That may or may not be the fault of the two organizations – our knowledge of the virus is still imperfect and incomplete, and understandings and best-practices continue to evolve.  Today’s “false statement” may well become tomorrow’s truth.

So, recognizing that, is it really appropriate for people who know little or nothing about the topic, but have a delete key under their fingertips, to censor dissenting opinions?  To delete YouTube videos, Facebook posts and groups, Instagram articles and Twitter tweets?  We’ve tolerated misunderstandings from anti-vaxxers for decades, but now it seems anyone who deviates from “conventional wisdom” is at risk of complete censorship and being “de-platformed”.

The latest example of someone being banned from social media is Robert F Kennedy Jr.  He may be wrong in what he says, but if he publicly says wrong things, he can be publicly rebutted and corrected.  If he is forced to go “underground” and share erroneous concepts with people, without any exposure or potential rebuttal, isn’t that actually more harmful than allowing him to use social media in the open?  Lies, misunderstandings and conspiracy theories flourish in the dark, and being censored adds to their credibility.

Should we have blanket banned mask advocates when the CDC said there was no need for a mask?  People who, months ago, advocated two masks when the CDC said one was enough?  How about the scientific studies proving aerosol spread was probably the greatest risk in terms of getting infected?  Should they have been banned while the CDC and WHO said there was no risk of aerosolized infection?

As you’ll see below, a trial new drug that was advocated some months ago earned its supporters public ire and ridicule; now a University of Oxford study shows it to be surprisingly effective, exactly as had earlier been claimed and laughed away.  How about the ivermectin advocates, without whom, the authorities would still be ignoring the drug, but as a result of their public advocacy, we’re now seeing the authorities slowly waking up and hinting that maybe it might be a good thing after all?

Should it be made illegal and forbidden to suggest the Wuhan/Chinese virus actually originated in Wuhan, now that a WHO group has told us otherwise?

We need full open debate on these topics, because there is an ample abundance of examples where the official narrative has been totally wrong and subsequently completely reversed.  Without public pressure and advocacy, we’d be way behind where we now are in our responses and understanding of the virus.

Current Numbers

Hawaii and Vermont swapped places in the death list, no other US changes.

Israel and Panama swapped places in the minor country list.  Sweden and the Netherlands swapped places in the major country list, as did also Italy and Argentina.

On the death list, Peru and Mexico swapped places, and it seems likely that Portugal will soon displace the US and move it down a place.

US Best and Worst States

RankCases/MillionDeaths/Million
A week agoNowA week agoNow
1 BestHI (18,495)HI (18,840)VT (290)HI (299)
2VT (20,037)VT (21,233)HI (294)VT (301)
3MEMEAKAK
4ORORMEME
5WA (42,205)WA (43,211)OR (474)OR (487)
47TN (107,827)TN (110,121)MS (2,077)MS (2,147)
48UT (109,569)UT (111,848)RI (2,085)RI (2,147)
49RI (110,719)RIMA (2,145)MA (2,215)
50SD (123,000)SD (124,182)NY (2,284)NY (2,346)
51 WorstND (128,643)ND (129,062)NJ (2,454)NJ (2,514)

 

Top Case Rates Minor Countries (cases per million)

RankOne Week AgoToday
1Andorra (131,072)Andorra (134,353)
2Gibraltar (123,586)Gibraltar (124,774)
3MontenegroMontenegro
4San MarinoSan Marino
5SloveniaSlovenia
6LuxembourgLuxembourg
7PanamaIsrael (77,717)
8Israel (73,456)Panama (75,768)
9Lithuania (68,515)Lithuania (70,056)
10Aruba (66,650)Aruba (68,550)

 

Top Case Rates Major Countries (cases per million)

RankOne Week AgoToday
1Czech Republic (94,521)Czech Republic (99,331)
2USA (82,110)USA (84,294)
3Portugal (73,570)Portugal (76,473)
4Spain (62,938)Spain (65,036)
5Belgium (61,653)Belgium (62,901)
6NetherlandsSweden (59,634)
7Sweden (57,678)Netherlands
8UK (57,159)UK (58,712)
9FranceFrance
10BrazilBrazil
11Argentina (43,167)Italy (44,422)
12Italy (42,998)Argentina (44,187)

 

Top Death Rate Major Countries (deaths per million)

RankOne Week AgoToday
1Belgium (1,826)Belgium (1,851)
2UK (1,619)UK (1,696)
3Czech Rep (1,569)Czech Rep (1,658)
4Italy (1,494)Italy (1,535)
5USA (1,406)USA (1,466)
6Portugal (1,325)Portugal (1,462)
7Spain (1,300)Spain (1,373)
8Peru (1,256)Mexico (1,308)
9Mexico (1,243)Peru (1,294)
10France (1,193)France (1,236)

 

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Items below include the possibility of Covid-negative test resulted being needed for domestic flights and if it is a good idea, one airline relaxes its mask wearing policy, and it might be a good idea to do so, why are we treating half of everyone hospitalized with a drug costing $3000+ and which most studies suggest has no effect on the virus, more good news about ivermectin and now budesonide too, more bad news about the AstraZeneca vaccine, the US is vaccinating more people than any other country in the world, more even than China, but President Biden calls this “all Trump’s fault”, travel remains difficult for the foreseeable future, and a familiar story that bears repeating.

SUPPORTER ONLY CONTENT

……….

END OF SUPPORTER ONLY CONTENT

Finally this week, the ultimate irony of censorship is that while sensible serious people are unable to advance rational debate over unproven aspects of the virus, some people can promote way-more-“out there” concepts without any fear of censorship at all.

Like, for example, this foreign gentleman and his belief that the vaccine turns people gay.

Please stay happy and healthy; all going well, I’ll be back again on Sunday.

Please click here for a listing of all our Covid-19 articles.

6 thoughts on “Covid-19 Diary : Thursday 11 February, 2021”

  1. Let’s ignore the facts that the WHO team who went to Wuhan were initially denied access and data a year ago, and that Chinese doctors, researchers and journalists who tried to cover the early Wuhan epidemic disappeared in the Spring, or that important information (including websites, research papers, staff photos and bios) were erased then. Let’s also ignore the fact that the chief sponsor of GoF (Gain of Function – making viruses more infectious) research in Wuhan, with bat Coronaviruses, is a member of the WHO team and a long-time outspoken opponent of any suggestion of any Chinese culpability in the virus development or release (Daszak).

    We will also ignore the fact that the visiting WHO team was not able to perform any analysis, but merely given Chinese-prepared reports and statements. They passively visited sites that had been cleaned and scrubbed repeated for over a year, and conducted interviews with CCP minders in the room and listening to every word said. It’s a bit like visiting a crime scene a year after the crime was committed, being guided by the criminals.

    But we’ll ignore all of that and ask another question – what chain of coincidences needed to occur in order for the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) to have been uninvolved in Covid-19?

    We would have to believe a highly infectious horseshoe bat Coronavirus that originated over 1000 miles from the Wuhan fish market, made its way there without infecting anyone else along the way.

    This bat Coronavirus has RNA parts from an as-yet unidentified intermediate mammal (pangolins were mentioned and then withdrawn after the suggestion was ridiculed) that are part of Covid, but no mammal has been shown to be the cause. No bats (or pangolins) were sold at the Wuhan fish market (yes, “fish market”).

    Infectees from the Wuhan “ground zero” were infected by this new coronavirus. But there were a number of other early infectees who were never at Ground Zero.

    China’s CDC lab (which conducts all kinds of viral research) is literally yards from Ground Zero. China’s only Level 4 bioresearch lab, The WIV (with many military bioweapon links) is less than 2 miles from Ground Zero; in the entire country, this is the only one. It is also the only lab that conducts bat Coronavirus GoF research.

    The virus that was studied at WIV was 98% the same as Covid-19 RNA. The virus that was studied killed 8 Chinese miners in the South with Covid-like symptoms – they were exposed to horseshoe bat guano, and the bat blood and guano were collected and brought to WIV.

    WIV was criticized repeatedly for safety issues. Several WIV staff became ill with pneumonia-like disease in the Fall of 2019 and have not been heard from again.

    The NIH and NIAID provided funding to WIV for this bat Coronavirus GoF research, after it was banned by the Obama Administration. Dr. Fauci was a huge proponent of this specific research (in writing). How very interesting that nobody has asked him about this, and he has never commented on it.

    What an amazing set of unrelated coincidences. I think you would need to be struck by lightning, while falling out of a window, having been shot by a blind gunman to have a similar result …

  2. One last amazing coincidence. A zoonotic disease (transmitted from animals to humans) has a very common pattern of infection. First it only infects via direct exposure (people directly exposed to bats, working with pigs, poultry, or camels, etc). Then human to human transmission starts, slowly and with some difficulty at first. Then, as it mutates, it gets better and better at spreading among humans. But this takes significant time, and leaves a trail. This was true for SARS, Swine flu, Bird flu, MERS, etc. It’s a very common pattern.

    Covid-19 initially presented itself in Wuhan as highly infectious, human to human. With no evidence of other types of transmission (no obvious Patient Zeros who caught it directly from animals). This is very unusual for a naturally occurring virus. But not for a virus engineered with Gain of Function techniques, where it would already have high human-to-human infectiveness. There are also some very technical aspects of Covid-19’s structure and how it binds to human cells that makes it very unusual and different from other naturally occurring Corona viruses.

    Just some more amazing coincidences.

  3. Given the generally solid statistic data presented in these posting, we find it odd that the chart of vaccines administered in today’s blog was in absolute numbers.

    The same data source has the data per hundred people. That more informative view shows that US is better than the majority of countries, about 30% behind the United Kingdom, and a rate that is about 1/3 of UAE and 1/4 of Israel.

    1. In other words, by that other measure, the US is the fourth best country in the world. I’ll happily accept that as a positive statement, too, although I’m far from sure you feel that way yourself. 🙂

  4. I agree. in absolute numbers, if Andorra gave 50% of their poplulation a vaccine, they would still be on the bottom of the list – as you say, Israel looks bad on the chart even though they are one of the best. The graft does give some indication of progress using the slope.

    I would like to see a chart on a week by week basis of number of vaccines available (shipped to states) and number of injections given. I fear we still have improvement needed to get the vaccine into arms sooner – although it apprears to be getting better.

    I also read “at this rate” it will take xxx months to get to 75%. With more and more vaccines supposedly being delivered over the next few months, “this rate” does not take into consideration of the ramp up of production (including other companies getting approved. If they used “at this rate” back in December, it would take 3 years to reach 75%.

    1. Hi, Mike

      There are elements of truth in both presentations, and the underlying fact – US is either very best or fourth best – doesn’t really materially change.

      I’m not sure what rates and timelines you’re looking at, and I agree that a part of our current “constraints” (such as they may be) are “last mile” related rather than supply related.

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David.