Covid-19 Diary : Sunday 28 June, 2020


As predicted, the count for world cases reached 10 million and world deaths reached 500,000.

We’ve tended to focus on our own specific problems, and understandably so, but it is worth noting that the rest of the world impacts on us too.  As long as the virus is active anywhere, it is active everywhere.

I’m noting how every day New Zealand is picking up another one or two (or even three or four) new cases from returning New Zealanders (thankfully, while they are in quarantine).  It is extraordinary to see how many of the returning people are infected – I’ll guess more than one per thousand, which is about 50 times higher than the apparent world average for new daily cases.  Even the US itself is experiencing new cases at a rate of “only” one per six thousand people per day.

Does the extremely high rate of new cases for returnees to NZ suggest that the actual rate, everywhere in the world, is much higher than realized?  Who only knows, but what it surely does show is there is little point in any country trying to eradicate the disease unless they have the resolve and ability to then keep the disease away and not let it back into the country again.

As for us in the US, 36 states have seen increases in new daily case numbers over the last week while only two (CT and RI) have seen declines.

For the first time ever, we had over 40,000 new cases reported in a single day – and that has now happened four days in a row.  But the real point I wish to make from the chart above is to look at the yellow line I drew – that is the state of things when President Trump declared a national emergency.  What do we have to show for the more than three months since then?  And, terrifyingly, what can we expect in the next three months?

Here’s another dismaying example of stunning professional incompetence and complacency.  How is it that our country’s professional epidemiologists and public health officials have been so appallingly lackadaisical about this?

Many thanks to reader and regular participant, Peter, who sent in this very helpful summary of where all manner of possible cures are in terms of testing and validation.  It seems the page is updated regularly; definitely worth keeping an eye on.

Current Numbers

Not a lot of changes, but, as always, a few.  Oman appears for the first time.  Brazil moves up the list of major countries, and Chile appears on the list of countries with the most severe death rates.

Top Case Rates Minor Countries

RankOne Week AgoToday
2San MarinoSan Marino
3Vatican CityBahrain
4BahrainVatican City
5AndorraFrench Guiana
8French GuianaMayotte


Top Case Rates Major Countries

RankOne Week AgoToday
8Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia


Top Death Rate Major Countries

RankOne Week AgoToday


I Am Not a Doctor, But….

Here’s a moderately encouraging article about how doctors are maybe getting better at treating/curing Covid-19 patients.  Or maybe it is just a shift in patient demographics.  My sense is that the average age of patient is trending younger, and because they have much better survival rates, perhaps that’s a large part of the reason for the reducing mortality.

Timings And Numbers

The site reported 33 states where the rate of new cases was accelerating on Friday, and increased that to 34 on Saturday and Sunday.

Fake news or just bad data?  This article is headlined “As cases surge in US, rural areas seeing increases as well”.  In the article, various vague statements are made, and three specific cases of rural areas are given.  But for two of the three examples, the increase is due to outbreaks at prisons, and in the third case, it is due to cases in a Tyson Foods chicken processing plant.  None of those three examples is a result of rural living at all.

Here’s an interesting animation that captures the growing level of Covid-19 deaths compared to other reasons.  It is at the bottom of the page.

Logic?  What Logic?

People are selling fake mask exemption cards that assert the cardholder is medically exempt from needing to wear a mask.  Why is anyone unwilling to accept the slight inconvenience of a mask in return for doing their part in helping stop the spread of this deadly disease?

Please stay happy and healthy; all going well, I’ll be back again soon.


Please click here for a listing of all our Covid-19 articles.



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