Covid-19 Diary : Sunday 31 October, 2021

I’ve a really important opening commentary today.  It is no exaggeration to say that acting on this might save your life or that of someone dear to you.

If You Read Nothing Else, Please Read This :

There are some fundamental Covid care issues we can learn from, of all places, Uttar Pradesh – a north Indian state you may never have heard of, and probably couldn’t locate on a map.

Uttar Pradesh (UP)  has a population of 225 million people, and after experiencing the same rapid rise and high numbers of Covid cases back in May, has been reporting under 10 new Covid cases every day through most of October.  That would be the same as the US reporting under 15 new Covid cases a day, but we’re reporting an average of more like 70,000 every day.  Yes, our new case rate every day is currently about 5,000 times higher than in UP.  And, in total, our case rate is 5.7 times higher than all of India (in terms of cases per million).  The discrepancy is even greater when it comes to deaths – more people die of Covid infections in the US than in India.  In the US, using current numbers, the death rate is 1.64% of all reported cases, in India, it is 1.34% – almost 20% lower.

You might say “only 20%” dismissively, but that 20% represents 153,000 more dead people in the US than if our death rate was the same as in India.

How has Uttar Pradesh managed to collapse its new Covid case counts?  This is not because of a high vaccination rate.  Currently, only 14.5% of the state has been vaccinated.  So what caused Uttar Pradesh to go from the “gloom and doom” headlines that the main stream media were gleefully publishing about India’s Covid crisis, back in May, to a situation where the state is declaring most of itself “Covid free” now?  (And, why aren’t there now matching headlines about India’s triumphant turn-around?)

WHO published an article in May about how Uttar Pradesh was “going the last mile” to stop Covid-19.  You’ll note two key elements are referred to – lots of testing with rapid test kits, and anyone who tested positive wasn’t just told to stay at home until they couldn’t breathe, but rather was given – as WHO coyly says – “a medicine kit with advice on disease management”.

That makes it sound like the key element of the kit was a piece of paper with “advice on disease management”, doesn’t it.  Wouldn’t you love to know what else was in those medicine kits, and wouldn’t you love to have some on hand, yourself?  WHO is strangely silent on sharing that information.  (Huge big question – why the secrecy?)

I’m happy to tell you what is in each kit.

  • Paracetamol
  • Vitamin C
  • Multi-vitamin
  • Zinc
  • Vitamin D3
  • 10 x 12mg Ivermectin tablets
  • 10 x 100 mg Doxycycline tablets

This article explains more about this.

India’s adoption of ivermectin as a “standard of care” treatment has been controversial and patchy.  As an interesting comparison, two other states, not using these kits – Kerala and Maharashtra – have much higher counts of currently active cases :

StatePopulationCurrently Active CasesCases/MillionTimes Greater than UP
Uttar Pradesh225 million1070.48(1)
Kerala35.1 million79,2662,2584700
Maharashtra122.1 million16,658136.5285

What is the miracle in UP that is giving it 285 – 4,700 lower current case counts?  Could it possibly be the contents of those medicine kits?

How can we in good conscience allow our fellow citizens – our friends and families – to stay at home until they can’t breathe, and withhold all treatment from them, when there is such a vivid and overwhelming example and proof of the efficacy of giving IVM, Doxy, Vitamin D3, and these other items to everyone as soon as they are infected?

Four follow up questions :

  • Who in their right mind can say “there’s no proof that ivermectin works” or, even more ridiculously, “ivermectin is dangerous”, when looking at this data?
  • How many hundreds of thousands of Americans have died because they’ve been denied access to the same collection of medicines as have been freely distributed to Indians in Uttar Pradesh?
  •  Where are the headlines about the treatment program in UP?  Why can’t WHO even bring itself to list the contents of the “medicine kits” that are proving to be so stunningly effective?  Why do we see excited headlines of the “breakthrough miracle drug” molnupiravir; currently largely untested, expensive, and with some reasons to be concerned about its safety, but just snide comments about dangerous horse medicine when it comes to IVM?
  • How is it that India has better health care than most of the western world?

This is really important.  If you come down with Covid, don’t you want to have one of these medicine kits?  I sure do, and have already assembled mine.  Vaccinated or not, you should do the same.

Current Numbers

Slovakia moved up three places in the minor country list.

Belgium moved up two places in the major country list.

Romania continues to skyrocket up the death list – well, okay, moving up “just” one more position mightn’t seem like skyrocketing, but look at the change in numbers – a growth of 161 more deaths per million in a single week.  None of the other tracked countries showed more than a growth of 29 more deaths per million (the US).  Something’s really going on in Romania.

The current case counts for last week table show the usual major changes.  It is interesting to note how all the countries, with the lonely exception of Singapore at the bottom of the list, and the debatable definition of a couple of “almost European” countries, are European.  There’s also no clear benefit from vaccination rates – I added the percent of each country fully vaccinated today.  Why is unvaccinated Africa totally missing off this list?  It is only a couple of months ago that the usual nonsense “gloom and doom” articles were prophesying an apocalypse in Africa, and now, the most affected African nations are Botswana (694 new cases per million last week), Libya (521) and Mauritius (511).  The US had about three times that number of new cases last week, and as you can see, some European countries had ten times that number.

In Europe, it has been another bad week with a further 10% growth in new cases.  Hungary had an 83% rise, the Czech Republic went up 63%, Norway 62%, and Germany 59%.  France rose 11%.  At the other end, Sweden enjoyed a 27% drop, Spain had a 22% drop, and the UK had a 13% drop.

In North America, Canada had a 23% drop, and Mexico a 9% drop.  The US had about the same drop as Mexico.

The world as a whole had a steady week, with the merest of drops, a 0.4% drop.

Top Case Rates Minor (population under 10 million) Countries (cases per million)

RankOne Week AgoToday
1Montenegro (224,337)Montenegro (229,736)
2Seychelles (220,917)Seychelles
4Gibraltar (174,417)Georgia (180,762)
5GeorgiaGibraltar (177,920)
6San MarinoSan Marino
7St BarthSlovenia
8MaldivesSt Barth
10Slovenia (153,855)Bahrain (155,525)


Top Case Rates Major (population over 10 million) Countries (cases per million)

RankOne Week AgoToday
1Czech Republic (161,104)Czech Republic (164,213)
2USA (138,849)USA (140,366)
3UK (128,357)UK (132,498)
12Colombia (96,737)Colombia (96,938)


Top Death Rate Major Countries (deaths per million)

RankOne Week AgoToday
1Peru  (5,958)Peru  (5,963)
2Czech Republic (2,852)Czech Republic (2,865)
4ArgentinaArgentina (2,535)
5Colombia (2,459)Romania (2,504)
6Romania (2,343)Colombia (2,466)
7USA (2,268)USA (2,297)
8Belgium (2,217)Belgium (2,230)
9Mexico (2,191)Mexico (2,206)
10Italy (2,185)Italy (2,189)


Top Rates in New Cases Reported in the Last Week (new cases per million) for Countries over one million population

RankOne Week AgoToday (Vax rate)
1Latvia  9,124Estonia  8,986 (57%)
2Georgia  7,516Latvia  8,914 (54%)
3LithuaniaLithuania (61% +)
4EstoniaSlovenia  (54%)
5SerbiaGeorgia  (23% +)
6SloveniaCroatia (44%)
7RomaniaSerbia  (44%)
8UK 4,761Slovakia (43%)
9ArmeniaBulgaria (22%)
10CroatiaRomania  (33%)
11BulgariaArmenia (7% +)
12Singapore  4,139Singapore  4,352 (80%)


The rest of this newsletter is for the very kind Travel Insider Supporters – it is their support that makes all of this possible, and it seems fair they get additional material in return.  If you’re not yet a Supporter, please consider becoming one, and get instant access to the rest of the Diary Entry, all the additional material on previous diary entries, and much extra content on other parts of the website too.

If you’re a contributor, you should make sure you’re logged in to the website, and when you are, you’ll see the purple text and balance of the newsletter below on the website.  If you’re not logged in, or reading this via email, you need to log in on the website first.

Items below include a trivial but nonsensical article about ivermectin that misses the main point, vaccine effectiveness and how quickly it fades, booster shots to become mandatory, the flawed logic of booster shots, the politics and conundrums present in vaccine policies, which countries are starting to administer booster shots, and the fee charged by a hospital for ignoring and not treating an ER visitor.




Please stay happy and healthy; all going well, I’ll be back again on Thursday.

Please click here for a listing of all our Covid-19 articles.


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