Covid-19 Diary : Thursday 8 April, 2021

 

Today saw the largest number of new Covid cases reported in the US since 26 February.  After enjoying three days in a row of dropping case numbers, we’ve now had three days in a row of rising cases (the seventh of the last seven days was also reporting falling cases) so the net result for the week has been more or less no change or trend, rather than any type of drop (or rise).

So, how do describe what happened in the last week, and the few weeks before?  Apparently we have to be very careful what word to use.  It isn’t a “new wave” nor is it, we are told, a “surge”.  The ever-present “experts” are not sure how to describe the latest increase.  Perhaps for once they could spare us their pontifications and simply let the numbers speak for themselves.  Saint Fauci says it won’t be another “explosion”, but it might be “an increase in cases”, and it remains to be seen if it will “explode into a real surge”.

Ever wonder why St Fauci is thought to be never wrong?  Because he speaks in such broad generalisms that any outcome can subsequently seem to have been predicted by him.  Well, apart from things like his shift on masks, from none to one to two.  Or his shifts on the level of immunity needed for “herd immunity”, but he explains that shamelessly by telling us “he knows best” and so he’ll sometimes deliberately lie and tell the truth in stages because that is for our own good, we can’t be trusted to react properly if he drops a truth bomb on us all at once.

Talking about experts not being sure, there’s the delightful situation at present in England, home of seldom-correct experts, where two highly respected universities with similar names and close to each other – ICL and UCL, both in London, are fielding their respective teams with very different “expert” opinions.  One “expert” team says that Britain will achieve “herd immunity” on Monday.  The other “expert” team is equally certain that Britain is nowhere near herd immunity.

Both groups can’t be correct, but we’re sure neither will ever admit to any error.

Still talking about experts, here’s another “expert” offering his validation of the Chinese/WHO nonsense/whitewash about the origins of the virus.  I was particularly curious to notice in his article that he mentions there are four theories about the origin of the virus, but then only talks about three of them.  You don’t need to be an expert to realize which was the omitted theory.

The expert, WHO, and China want you believe that the virus magically made its way from a bat (not that any bats have been found with SARS-Cov-2 virus) to some frozen food in some other country, and from there to China, while refusing to even admit the possibility that a lab that has had a series of virus “escapes” in the past had another such accident which saw the virus escape into the wild.

Fortunately, some scientists still have their integrity intact, and this article reports on a group of scientists who say the WHO/China study “provided no credible answers” and are calling for a real study into where the virus came from.

I was a bit critical of England and its experts, just above.  But they sometimes come up with brilliant ideas, such as this concept to allow and encourage everyone in England to test themselves, twice every week, at home, to be sure they don’t have an infection.

This is a brilliant idea; a shame it hadn’t been introduced a year ago, and everywhere else in the world, too.

Talking about excellent ideas, there’s been a huge amount of criticism about the concept of “vaccine passports” recently.  Of note is this survey which finds 91% of travelers are happy with the idea.  So why are some people so vociferously opposed?  Who doesn’t want to travel safely?

Of even greater note is the strange state of Florida.  Clearly some people there are suffering from sunstroke or some other form of madness.  In the last week or so not only has the Governor tried to make it illegal for private businesses to selectively do business with vaccinated people only, but his adminstration is now suing the Biden administration for not encouraging cruise lines to restart cruises from FL ports, saying that vaccinating passengers makes cruises safe.

One question for the FL gov and his hapless helpers – if you make it illegal for businesses to selectively seek out vaccinated people, how will the cruise lines selectively allow only vaccinated people onto their cruises?

The ivermectin haters are in a panic – people can freely buy ivermectin at animal and farm supply stores.  So they are doubling down on their original lie – that ivermectin is not helpful, by now saying it is dangerous.

On 6/26/2019, the NY Times reported “the drug is considered safe enough to give to almost everyone except the youngest infants & pregnant women”.  But in 2020 it changed that positive statement and said about ivermectin that it is “a drug used on animals that may cause serious harm in humans”.

Don’t believe everything you read in the NY Times.

Current Numbers

There were no ranking changes in the US.

The last four places in the minor country list changed substantially.

Sweden moved up to now be the third worst major country, and Poland swapped a place with the UK.  The UK seems likely to drop another place in the next few days if Jordan continues its upward momentum – that is great news if you’re hoping to travel to the UK later this year, not so good if you’re wanting to travel to Jordan.

The UK also dropped one place on the death rate list, and Mexico dropped two places.

US Best and Worst States

Rank Cases/Million Deaths/Million
A week ago Now A week ago Now
1 Best HI (21,043) HI (21,531) HI (327) HI (332)
2 VT VT VT (364) VT (369)
3 ME ME AK AK
4 OR OR ME (553) ME (556)
5 WA (48,377) WA (49,341) OR (565) OR (578)
47 UT (120,441) UT (121,308) MS (2,368) MS (2,380)
48 IA (120,525) IA (121,761) RI (2,477) RI (2,488)
49 RI RI MA (2,498) MA (2,520)
50 SD (133,372) SD (134,738) NY (2,605) NY (2,631)
51 Worst ND (135,552) ND (136,949) NJ (2,769) NJ (2,790)

 

Top Case Rates Minor Countries (cases per million)

Rank One Week Ago Today
1 Andorra (155,808) Andorra (160,406)
2 Montenegro (145,788) Montenegro (148,960)
3 San Marino San Marino
4 Gibraltar (126,919) Gibraltar (126,948)
5 Slovenia Slovenia
6 Luxembourg Luxembourg
7 Israel Aruba
8 Aruba St Barth
9 Bahrain (83,296) Israel (90,837)
10 Panama (81,434) Bahrain (87,647)

 

Top Case Rates Major Countries (cases per million)

Rank One Week Ago Today
1 Czech Republic (143,569) Czech Republic (146,196)
2 USA (93,981) USA (95,392)
3 Portugal (80,822) Sweden (83,726)
4 Sweden Portugal (81,153)
5 Belgium Belgium
6 Netherlands Netherlands
7 France (71,810) France
8 Spain (70,376) Spain
9 UK (63,830) Poland (66,099)
10 Poland (62,328) UK (64,118)
11 Jordan (60,129) Jordan (63,755)
12 Brazil (60,099) Brazil (62,167)

 

Top Death Rate Major Countries (deaths per million)

Rank One Week Ago Today
1 Czech Rep (2,479) Czech Rep (2,561)
2 Belgium (1,979) Belgium (2,004)
3 UK (1,860) Italy (1,869)
4 Italy (1,819) UK (1,863)
5 USA (1,704) USA (1,726)
6 Portugal (1,657) Portugal (1,661)
7 Spain (1,615) Spain (1,629)
8 Mexico (1,564) Peru (1,620)
9 Peru (1,561) Brazil (1,616)
10 Brazil (1,523) Mexico (1,586)

 

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Items below include searching for new Covid treatments, and also finding some promising new treatments too (while overlooking others), walking back mistakes by the CDC Director, the AZ vaccine is now only universally supported for people aged between 50 – 55, another new vaccine, another stupid overreaction to normal side effects of getting the shot, and a reminder that side effects are good, an important reminder, some statistics including the US passing a great milestone on its vaccination path, and a really strange new shortage.

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1 thought on “Covid-19 Diary : Thursday 8 April, 2021”

  1. fh7742

    Re: ‘One “expert” team says that Britain will achieve “herd immunity” on Monday. The other “expert” team is equally certain that Britain is nowhere near herd immunity.’

    It’s not quite as balanced an argument as that. In fact, all sorts of other “experts” — I generally call them experts — have torn the first expert’s argument to shreds, pointing out that he’s overestimated the degree of immunity in the community and ignored the threat of new variants.

    Here’s another expert…or “expert”:

    ‘Dr Adam Kucharski, of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said: “Unfortunately, the modelling approach used to produce this analysis has a history of making over-confident and over-optimistic predictions.” They had got it wrong in the past, he said, pointing to the forecast in late September that “a plausible worst-case scenario is a peak in daily deaths in the tens (eg 50 to 60) not hundreds, in November”. That, of course, was before the Kent virus took off.’

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/09/ucl-team-claim-covid-19-herd-immunity-achieved-uk-disputed-scientists

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